A Q&A with Kristen Soltis Anderson on Polling in the Trump Era

An interview with one of the Republican Party's premier pollsters

This week, I’m posting the first of what I hope will be many Q&A pieces in the coming weeks and months. My aim is to gather insights and wisdom from experts, including some friends and acquaintances, who have established themselves as key voices in the world of politics, polling, and campaigns. 

Up first is an interview with Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner at Republican polling firm Echelon Insights. Kristen has worked in political polling for nearly two decades. I have known Kristen since I moved to the DC area a decade ago and have always paid attention to her insights on political strategy, messaging, and public opinion. Kristen has established herself as one of the GOP’s top pollsters, especially on tracking trends among young voters. And she is not afraid to tell the GOP what it needs to hear in terms of electoral strategy. With The Scorecard’s focus on political messaging and election data, Kristen was a natural fit for our first Q&A in the series. 

P.S. I may be biased, but I relish opportunities to highlight fellow graduates of the University of Florida. Go Gators!

Here’s my interview with Kristen Soltis Anderson…

Kevin Shafer: What motivated your interest in pursuing a career in politics? Was it something you were always interested in? Why polling, specifically?

Kristen Soltis Anderson: I was interested in politics from a young age, through things like running for student government and participating in the debate team at my high school. Programs like American Legion Auxiliary Girls Nation gave me a lot of exposure to the world of politics and that got me hooked. When I arrived in Washington to begin an internship during college, I wasn't thinking about polling as a career, but rather press and communications. As it turned out, that very first job at a polling firm was a very lucky break - I discovered that I loved it, and the rest is history.

Kevin: What is an aspect of political polling that is most misunderstood by those who do not work in the political polling field?

Kristen: People think most polls are done for two reasons: to measure the horserace and to tell a candidate what to say. First, polls test so much more than just who is up and who is down! The ballot test is often the least interesting part of a poll. Second, most candidates already know what they want to say. A poll is useful for letting them know what things voters might already agree with and where they'll need to work harder to persuade, but sometimes politicians are criticized as "poll driven" as if it is a bad thing to listen to your voters!

Kevin: Polling has dramatically changed over the last two decades. What has been the hardest change to navigate? And what changes in polling methodologies have improved polling’s accuracy?

Kristen: I think the declining response rates that made phone polling less feasible were the first big blow because suddenly you had to rely much more often on non-probability sampling (like online polling) to make survey research work in a cost-effective, timely manner. At the same time, while these online polls have improved, they're still far from perfect, and making sure your sample is representative is never easy.

Kevin: You’ve done countless focus groups over the years. What insights do you get about voters from conducting focus groups that you don’t get from a quantitative survey? 

Kristen: I love hearing from voters directly in focus groups because oftentimes they'll say things that you wouldn't have even thought to ask about. You hear in their own words, in the language they'd use, how they think about an issue. You can also get to the emotional core of an issue through a focus group in a way that is hard to do in a survey. 

Kevin: You started working in GOP polling during the tail end of the Bush presidency. There's been a lot of change in the GOP since that time, as I'm sure you've seen. How have these changes affected how you approach polling or view the political landscape? 

Kristen: One thing I never imagined I'd ask about would be whether people are favorable or not to Donald Trump! That has really changed a lot about the questions we ask. We ask things like whether Republicans primarily feel part of the party or part of the Trump movement, things that would have been hard to imagine asking ten years ago.

Kevin: In 2015, you released The Selfie Vote, a book that provides advice to Republicans on how to gain more support among the Millennial generation. As the GOP continues to struggle with Millennial voters as they've aged further into the electorate, do you believe the Republican Party needs a similar book focused on Gen Z?

Kristen: In some ways, Gen Z is going to be even harder for Republicans, because there are even more social and cultural hurdles. For Millennials, it was primarily about the issue of same-sex marriage, which the Supreme Court took off the table with the Obergefell decision. When I wrote The Selfie Vote, issues around gender identity were not big, salient political issues dividing the generations. Additionally, there wasn't a lot of evidence that there was a big generation (or gender!) divide around an issue like abortion, and that's no longer the case.

Kevin: Your book advised Republicans to pursue a softer tone and policy on immigration and present a positive policy-oriented message to appeal to more voters. Why do you think that Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 despite essentially ignoring this messaging and policy strategy?

Kristen: I do think that a strategy along those lines would have done more to help Republicans improve with younger voters. At the same time, Donald Trump recognized that there was a lot of frustration in the country and that people in 2016 did not necessarily see Hillary Clinton as the right answer to address those frustrations. And so with just the right number of votes in just the right combination of states, despite not winning the popular vote, he won. I think it's important to not overstate the extent to which Donald Trump's vision for America held appeal to people, or to take his 2016 victory as proof that Republicans are fine pursuing his sort of strategy. Republicans are still on the ropes and are underperforming, and need a message to broaden their appeal. 

Kevin: From a purely electoral standpoint, what gives you optimism as a Republican? What gives you pessimism?

Kristen: At the same time that Republicans have struggled with younger voters, they have made inroads in building a more racially and ethnically diverse coalition. There's a lot of good that comes from being more in touch with working class Americans' views and not just being the party of country club members. However, I do worry that the generational problems are still lurking and slowly making it harder and harder for Republicans to stitch together victories.

Kevin: On a personal note, is there any show you’re binging or a book you’re reading that the readers may find interesting?

Kristen: One of my colleagues nudged me to read Andy Grove's High Output Management, which is fascinating because it is very much built for an earlier era, but still has good lessons about how to get the most out of a team you are leading.

Kevin: Finally, where can the readers find you on social media or listen to/read your analysis/commentary?

Kristen: CNN on TV, SiriusXM for my radio show on Saturdays at 10 am on Channel 124. And of course Twitter for politics and dog pictures, Instagram for mostly dog pictures, and Substack for longer-form writing.

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I’d like to thank Kristen again for taking the time to provide her valuable insights on polling and her career. Readers can follow Kristen on Twitter at @KSoltisAnderson and subscribe to her Substack, Codebook by Kristen Soltis Anderson.