A True Game Changer?
Can tonight's debate truly change the 2024 presidential race?
We are in the midst of one of the more stable presidential campaigns when it comes to polling. It’s a tight race within the margin of error. But this poll stability will not necessarily last as Election Day draws closer. And within this stability is a masked instability driven by the unpopularity of the two major party presumptive nominees. By that, I mean there are plenty of “double haters” — or voters who dislike both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and so are not fully committed to the choice they are telling pollsters they support.
With that as the background, we are now on the cusp of a potentially defining moment in the campaign: the earliest presidential debate ever in an election, which will be held in Atlanta, GA. This will be the first time Biden and Trump will be on the same stage since the second 2020 presidential debate nearly four years ago. It is the first debate for either of them since that 2020 debate since neither had primary debates in 2023-24.
So, there’s the possibility both men show real debate “rust” and further fuel many voters’ discomfort for both men. Typically, the first debate for an incumbent president has proven disastrous for the incumbent — Trump in 2020, Barack Obama in 2012, and George W. Bush in 2004 were all deemed losers of their first debates. That being said, Trump in 2024 isn’t a typical challenger since he’s more well-known as a former president and, unlike previous challengers, wasn’t tested through the fires of primary debates.
Will this debate matter? I think so. Will the effects be lasting? That is yet to be seen. But this debate clarifies for many voters that this is the choice they face as they vote in November. You’d be surprised at how many voters STILL see the possibility of an escape hatch that pushes Biden and/or Trump off the ballot. Seeing this debate and the coverage afterward (along with the party conventions where they will officially be nominated) should crystallize to enough voters that this indeed is the choice: Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
Despite inching into a virtual tie with Trump, this debate matters more to Biden’s chances. It matters to both candidates, and later I’ll lay out the things Trump would need to accomplish in the debate. But here’s why I think it matters more to Biden: debates are about moments and about presentation — about how each candidate appears to the average voter.
Many voters who are undecided or uncommitted to either candidate look at President Biden and don’t see him as a bad guy or as someone who doesn’t care about them, especially when compared to Donald Trump. Biden beats Trump on those qualities. These voters’ primary concerns with Biden are even beyond policy concerns, even if they have them (mainly on immigration and the economy). Their concern is that he’s not up to the job and simply too old to lead a country and world facing some critical crises domestically and internationally. A lot of the critique on Biden is that he’s old, frail, and weak, whereas Trump, as deranged as he comes off, signals more vitality and strength.
Biden’s goal here must be to change the narrative about him that he’s too weak and old to handle the job. That won’t come in PowerPoint-like policy prescriptions and only laying out differences from Trump’s ideas. It will come if Biden comes off like he did in the State of the Union earlier this year. Biden came off as passionate, engaging, and jovial in his sparring and interactions with his GOP critics in Congress.
But a debate is different. Biden surely knows from his experience in the 2020 debates that Trump is going to hammer at him with all sorts of personal attacks and insults (he will also likely try to interrupt though maybe not as much with different mic muting rules). Biden will need to show these voters who are down on him — including some in his base who don’t like Trump but are unsure if they will even vote or are flirting with RFK Jr. — that he has the strength to take on Trump and beat him back. If he can’t stand up to Trump, how can he stand up for America against dictators, some voters may ask. This doesn’t mean he has to interrupt Trump. It means he has to nettle Trump into digging his own grave with his own lunacy.
Biden also needs to show strength on some policy contrasts. I look back at former President Obama’s messaging against Mitt Romney as an example of what the president should lay out in this debate. Obama defanged Romney on the question of who can best handle the economy by casting Romney as a corporate raider who doesn’t care about middle-class families struggling to pay their bills. The Biden campaign ad from earlier this week started this messaging, which boils down to this: Joe Biden is focused on your family’s concerns and is on your side, but Donald Trump is consumed by his personal grievances and is running to serve himself and his rich buddies. It changes the election narrative to be about the future that can be built for voters rather than about two unlikable old men and voter frustration with the current status quo.
If I were Joe Biden, I wouldn’t frame Trump’s conviction merely as a way to mock him and make swing voters think Trump is too corrupt to serve, though I wouldn’t shy away from that. There’s a narrative out there: Biden is old and Trump is corrupt. It’s okay to hammer away at that. But I think you frame it further as evidence that Trump is running to evade accountability for his actions and to serve his own self-interest. In other words, he’s not for America First, but for Donald Trump first. Then, Biden should pivot to discussing a few policy goals that he has achieved or will achieve in a second term that shows he’s focused on their problems, with a heavy focus on lowering costs.
In essence, it boils down to this for Joe Biden: get Trump to talk about himself and get voters to see you are talking to them about what they care about.
For Donald Trump to succeed, he should avoid long-winded discussions about the 2020 election or his criminal charges or indictments. Elections are about the future and successful candidates talk to voter concerns, not air their personal grievances. Many undecided voters don’t want to hear that talk. Many who say positive things about Trump believe he did a good job on the economy when he was president (not here to debate the facts on the economy). To be successful in the debate, Trump should hammer away at issues he is perceived to be stronger on than Biden - the economy and immigration. If Trump can frame the election as a pure referendum on the Biden presidency, then that will be a boost to the Trump candidacy. If he focuses too much on his personal issues and comes off like the lunatic he appeared to be during the first debate with Biden in 2020, then that will help Biden make it more of a choice between him and Trump.
I’ve felt for a long time, based on polling data and focus groups, that this election will be won based on who’s in the negative news stories the most. If the information flow to voters is more focused on Trump and his corruption and lunacy, then Biden wins. If the information flow to voters is more focused on Biden and his age and perceived inability to handle the job, then Trump wins.
I will say one thing I’ve noticed about this election from scanning social media and talking to friends and family: people are much less tuned in to this race than they were in 2020 or 2016. Many aren’t paying attention yet and don’t like either candidate. The Trump base does seem a bit more engaged than the Democratic side. That’s not good news for Biden at first glance but Trump’s cult-like following isn’t enough to win him the race unless Biden’s base continues to lag. But this race will ultimately be decided by voters who dislike both men. This debate will serve as the first opportunity for many of these voters to see both Trump and Biden facing off, the first chance for them to see in an unfiltered manner both men handling a high-pressure situation.
How many will watch? This is the million-dollar question. Does the fact that this debate is happening over four months from Election Day reduce the audience size? I think that’s definitely possible.
But a big moment can make a difference when the polls are this close. If enough swing voters see President Biden as someone in command and passionate about taking on Trump and taking on their concerns, that helps him and quiets a lot of doubts about his chances and begins to create a positive counter-narrative for him that brings some of his base back and shows swing voters that he’s up to the job. If enough swing voters see a Donald Trump less focused on his own problems and more focused on theirs, that may mollify enough swing voters who are down on Biden to give Trump a second look.
This election will be decided at the bare margins in a few battleground states. Any moment that reinforces a negative narrative about your candidacy can prove fatal. But a moment that goes against the grain and meets voters where they are can prove to be the path to victory.
I hope to do a post-debate debrief on how each candidate performed and how it will impact the race. But until now, readers, enjoy (as best as humanly possible) the debate!