The Copycat Primary
Can Ron DeSantis mimic Donald Trump all the way to winning the GOP nomination?
Much of the commentary about the budding 2024 GOP presidential primary has centered around the two frontrunners, former President Donald Trump and current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has formally declared his candidacy. DeSantis has not declared his bid but is making all the moves short of doing so. Most polls show Trump and DeSantis as the clear front runners, the only ones with support above 20 percent. And this commentary has centered around the narrative that DeSantis is an alternative to Trump. DeSantis being competitive with Trump is borne out of him being the most Trump-like candidate outside of Trump himself. But DeSantis trying to be another version of Trump without drawing distinct contrasts with him beyond just “I don’t tweet attacks on people at 6 am” is a strategy bound to fail.
As a former Republican, I’m scarred by the memory of the 2016 primary. That experience makes me skeptical of the narrative put out there by some folks who are assuming after 2022’s underwhelming results for Trump-backed candidates that Trump’s demise is imminent.
Besides the number of candidates staying in the race and dividing the non-Trump vote, one of the biggest factors in Trump’s candidacy being successful in the 2016 primary was his opponents’ lack of desire to attack him early and consistently. Many saw him as a fragile frontrunner and bought into the notion that his support would collapse and that they needed his supporters to back their candidacies. They strategized that they didn’t want to really contrast themselves with Trump for fear of alienating his base, which they wanted to pick up. Ted Cruz did this most notably. Sure, he ended up with the second most votes and delegates. But he still lost.
I am also skeptical that 2022 has fatally wounded Trump’s political standing in the GOP. While he is certainly weaker than he was during his presidency and will face significant challenges from other candidates (most likely DeSantis), he is still the frontrunner and still dominates the conversation. The latest CNN poll of the 2024 GOP primary race indicated that he has the most loyal and committed supporters. And yes his candidates lost in general elections in swing states last year, but they won primaries. He still has immense popularity among the voters who picked folks like Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona, and Tudor Dixon in Michigan. In Colorado, the state GOP elected an election denier as party chair.
Typically successful candidates define the terms of the debate. They shape the issues voters care about. Trump was able to do this in 2016 - he was the center of the discussion and everyone else was responding to him. Yes, Ron DeSantis is getting a lot of attention right now. And maybe Trump has been so successful in transforming the GOP in his image that he is no longer needed. Perhaps he turns out to be a victim of his own success in that regard. But the only way to truly beat Trump is to take him on - to draw clear contrasts without alienating his base. The latter point - not turning off his base - is why DeSantis may very well outlast the likes of Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo. The base that is addicted to culture war fights, to bullying LGBTQ folks, and to taking on “woke” will surely like what the Florida Governor is offering. However, it is pretty obvious that DeSantis is trying to be the next version of Trump, to mimic him enough to eat at his base and take it for himself.
I personally would hope that a non-Trumpian Republican can win the nomination. But alas, that is very unlikely. The party is his, even if not everyone is backing him. Trumpian tactics and authoritarian policies are where the party is at. There is little discussion about how to address inflation, crime, and other pressing issues. But there’s a lot of talk about grievances against transgender people, about fighting “woke”, angst about the last election, and increasing disgust with aiding Ukraine against Russian aggression. These are the types of messages that animate the Trump base. And Ron DeSantis isn’t trying to offer a different path on those issues - a path focused on issues where voters may give them their support over Democrats and President Biden. He’s focusing on the issues that led them to disappointing results last year.
And in doing this, DeSantis is trying to be his own version of Trump rather than the best version of himself. From even how he speaks in public, he has adopted the same gestures and speech mannerisms of Trump. He is acting in a way that fits with this cringeworthy ad from his 2018 run for Governor where he basically was teaching his toddlers to worship at Trump’s feet. How he handled Covid in Florida and his policy vendettas against “the woke elites” as governor have surely bought him a lot of cred among a lot of Trump supporters and the GOP base. But he was and still is trying to be Trump 2.0.
DeSantis has echoed the increasing sentiment of the GOP base and the view of Trump that U.S. support for Ukraine’s fight against Putin’s occupation needs to be reduced or ended altogether. He has made statements akin to what Speaker McCarthy has said - no more “blank checks” for the support. But the GOP is wrong. Our support for Ukraine is not designed to get us into war with Russia - it is meant to enforce the international order and stop big authoritarian nations from gobbling up other smaller nations. It sends a message to China that we will support Taiwan if they decide to annex it.
This week, DeSantis, answering a questionnaire from noted Putin apologist Tucker Carlson, said:
"While the U.S. has many vital national interests — securing our borders, addressing the crisis of readiness within our military, achieving energy security and independence, and checking the economic, cultural, and military power of the Chinese Community Party — becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them."
Here, DeSantis doesn’t just try to argue his case based on some fiscal responsibility argument. He explicitly says that support for a democratic ally against a fascist menace is not in our vital national security interests. And he even calls the war between the Russians and the Ukrainians a “territorial dispute”! Vladimir Putin couldn’t have written such talking points any better. This is not the party that sees the U.S. as a beacon of democracy that leads the international order and acts best by “peace through strength.” This is not the party of Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, and Bush that saw this kind of isolationism as not only dumb but also damaging to the nation’s security and the peace of the world.
But here’s the kicker: it’s not the party of Congressman Ron DeSantis during the Obama years. As Andrew Kaczynski has noted:
A CNN KFile review of DeSantis’ past comments and actions found that DeSantis consistently supported sending aid to Ukraine and condemned the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and 2015 and as late as 2017.
In a previously unreported interview with conservative talk radio host Bill Bennett in June 2015, DeSantis said he supported providing arms to Ukraine and NATO neighboring countries after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and criticized the Obama administration for not doing so.
DeSantis once said he’s of “the Reagan school” when it came to dealing with Russia. Now he’s singing a different tune. And his rival has picked up on it. As CBS reported, Donald Trump poked fun at DeSantis’ change in position, noting that DeSantis is “following what I am saying. It is a flip-flop. He was totally different. Whatever I want, he wants.”
That last quote was the killer and could haunt DeSantis.
DeSantis comes off less of a fierce defender of freedom as he has portrayed himself and less of the fighter that GOP voters are looking for. He comes off as less of a strong leader and more of a sycophant of his chief rival in the GOP nomination battle. Once again, it is Trump who has been able to drive the narrative by driving the policy agenda. And Trump can more effectively make the argument to GOP primary voters that they can have someone who is trying to be like Trump or have Trump himself.
And typically candidates that try this copycat strategy fail, especially when their past is brought up. Voters can sniff out transparent pandering and flip-flops. They value authenticity in their candidates. And when those types of candidates don’t have very much charisma and have an aloof personality as DeSantis has, that is a double whammy. Early reports of DeSantis’ stops in early primary states indicate that he doesn’t share much of an appetite for the socializing with voters and donors that comes with being a successful national candidate. He doesn’t come across as a person with the social skills voters expect from top-tier presidential candidates. And his obsession with anti-woke issues may play well with certain elements of the base, but it doesn’t hold a candle to the white-hot victimhood complex and rage mentality of Trump’s base. And now that it’s a possibility that Trump may be indicted this week, that may prove even more true.
We will see what will happen. There’s a long way to go. But in copying Trump’s every move without fighting back against Trump’s attacks on him, DeSantis doesn’t inspire much confidence in his ability to be the Republican who can dethrone Donald Trump as the king of GOP politics.