The Voting Begins
Predictions for a Unusually Predictable Iowa Caucus
Well folks, we are finally here (or are we about to affirm where we’ve been all along?). The first votes of the 2024 presidential primary season will be counted tonight in brutally frigid Iowa.
Why The Caucus Format Matters
There are some key differences between a caucus and a primary that will factor into the outcome in Iowa. Unlike primaries, caucuses are managed by state parties, rather than by the state government. These are essentially meetings where the parties conduct business in addition to voting for the party’s nominee for president. The other key feature of a caucus is that it’s not a normal election where you can go essentially anytime throughout the day to cast your vote. Caucuses are at a specific time. This tends to make the caucuses a bit less democratic in nature, making it harder for people with disabilities, shift workers, and students to participate. Essentially, this process rewards those who can take a significant chunk out of their evening to attend the caucus meeting and then vote.
Why Iowa Has Not Always Been Predictive… With an Important Caveat
To put Iowa’s importance to the GOP primary process in perspective, it has often served as a vote to winnow the field to two or three viable candidates, but it has a less than stellar record in choosing the GOP nominee. Past Iowa winners Ted Cruz (2016), Rick Santorum (2012), and Mike Huckabee (2008) all ended up not capturing the nomination. The last Iowa GOP Caucus winner to receive the GOP nomination was George W. Bush in 2000. That outcome is honestly the best comparison to the 2024 GOP race. Bush won Iowa comfortably but lost New Hampshire to John McCain due to McCain’s support among independents, but Bush’s strong support among actual GOP voters carried him to the nomination.
So, with those facts set, let’s jump to the 2024 GOP race in the Hawkeye State…
This is clearly Donald Trump’s race (and nomination) to lose. No non-incumbent candidate has held a polling lead both nationally and in Iowa in the modern era as large as Trump has this late in the game. Keep in mind that the previous caucus winners who eventually lost the nomination were not national frontrunners. Instead, they were candidates whose base of support was largely limited to the Evangelical base of the GOP, which is not as big of a part of the primary electorates in the remaining states. Trump polls well with Evangelicals but also among non-Evangelicals within the GOP, mainly non-college whites who are not Evangelicals. This means the Iowa curse likely won’t impact Trump’s standing in the fight for the nomination if he were to win Iowa.
Iowa’s Gold Standard Poll Reaffirms This is Trump’s Race to Lose
Over the weekend, we received the final pre-caucus poll from the gold standard in Iowa polling from Ann Selzer and The Des Moines Register. Here are the toplines with changes from their previous poll from December:
Donald Trump 48% (-3)
Nikki Haley 20% (+4%)
Ron DeSantis 16% (-3%)
Vivek Ramaswamy 8% (+3%)
While there has been some movement, it’s very small and within the margin of error. The biggest change from the December poll is that Haley has replaced DeSantis as the second-place candidate. But the former president maintains a commanding lead. It is the largest percentage and the largest lead a poll leader has had in the final DMR poll. Like I said, this is Trump’s Iowa Caucus to lose, pending a monumental polling error the likes of which we’ve never seen.
The Battle for Second: DeSantis v. Haley
Second place in the Iowa Caucus is really a race to see who can be the one to be the Trump alternative that would still have a minuscule chance to dethrone Trump and win the nomination. While Haley has had a bit of a polling bump in recent weeks, a big threat to her finishing second in Iowa is the enthusiasm gap for her compared to Trump and even to DeSantis. The DMR poll found that just under four in ten Haley backers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about her candidacy; that same metric is just over six in ten for DeSantis supporters and nearly nine in ten for Trump.Â
Caucuses tend to be won on enthusiasm - you have to get people really committed to your candidacy to take a couple of hours out of their evening to vote for you. The poll suggests that DeSantis’ supporters may be more likely than Haley supporters to brave the frigid cold Iowa weather and devote a lot of their Monday night to casting their vote. In addition, the DMR poll actually found that Haley’s supporters would favor Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a 43% to 23% margin if the Trump-Biden rematch happens as expected. That type of protest vote against Trump’s grip over the GOP is likely harder to motivate to join a GOP caucus than GOP voters who are committed to a candidate due to their ideology. So don’t be surprised if Haley finishes behind DeSantis or basically ties him due to DeSantis having a more committed base, which his campaign has focused heavily on trying to bring out.
We know that Trump’s support within the GOP is not only wide but deep as well. And the latest polling out of Iowa backs that up. According to the DMR poll, 82 percent of Trump’s backers say their minds are made up compared to only 64 percent of DeSantis’ supporters and 63 percent of Haley's supporters. That is a positive sign for Trump and means his campaign can remain focused on just turning out his voters rather than on persuasion like the campaigns for DeSantis and Haley will need to do.
Could a Cold Snap Change the Result?
That leads to a final X-factor in this race: the bone-chilling temperatures in Iowa on caucus night. Current forecasts show that at the time of the caucus tonight, it will be around -5 degrees, with wind chills even lower. Will this lower turnout? This likely will be the coldest Iowa caucus night ever. It’s hard to say for sure if this will affect turnout. It’s also difficult to say what a hypothetical lower turnout will do for each candidate’s chances.
Here’s my theory: it benefits the candidates with the most enthusiastic support. That would be mainly Trump and, to a lesser extent, DeSantis. It would hurt Haley. Trump’s support, however, may be so strong in the polls that some may not show up, thinking he has it in the bag and they don’t think they need to brave the extreme cold to vote for him. I’m more convinced by the former argument. Trump has a proven history of turning his committed voters out to the polls since he’s been on the scene. Instead, I think the weather factor could boost DeSantis’ support above what he had in the latest polling. His campaign has a pretty decent organization in the state. That can be critical to the DeSantis campaign identifying who needs help getting to their caucus site. That being said, Iowans are pretty used to the cold, and it may not deter many GOP voters from the polls.
Final Prediction for the Night
So, given all the analysis, here are my final predictions for the 2024 Iowa GOP Caucus:
Turnout in the 2016 GOP Iowa Caucus was nearly 187,000. Will it be as high, given the weather? I am predicting the weather and, more importantly, the non-competitive nature of the race lowers turnout but only slightly. I think the turnout remains close to the 2016 total due to the first-time caucus voters that Trump is expected to bring in.
Predicted Turnout: Approx. 180,000
I expect Trump to romp here, but the weather may play a role in a bit of an underperformance for him. I think some of his voters may stay home due to the weather and the perception he has it locked up. I believe Ron DeSantis’ ground game and support among Evangelicals, compared to Haley’s support with them, pulls him to a slight second-place finish. Haley finishes third, just behind DeSantis, having consolidated the small part of the base that is more anti-Trump (mainly more college-educated independents and moderate Republicans). Vivek Ramaswamy finishes in 4th.
Predicted Result:
Donald Trump - 48% (approx. 86,000 votes)
Ron DeSantis - 21% (approx. 38,000 votes)
Nikki Haley - 19% (approx. 34,000 votes)
Vivek Ramaswamy - 9% (approx. 16,000 votes)
Asa Hutchinson - 1% (approx. 2,000 votes)
Uncommitted - 2 % (approx. 4,000 votes)
Where the Race Goes After Iowa
These results out of Iowa would suggest that Nikki Haley can consolidate the less Trump-friendly bastion of independents that can crossover and vote in the next contest in New Hampshire on Jan. 23rd. It also keeps DeSantis in the race, though he will not play much in New Hampshire. He has said he’s headed to South Carolina after Iowa. However, DeSantis staying in the race can help Haley as DeSantis voters’ primary second choice is Trump. Can it be enough for Haley to overtake Trump in New Hampshire where he holds a smaller lead than he has in Iowa and where Haley is in a clear second place there? That is yet to be seen. But Independents and college-educated voters are a much larger block of the New Hampshire primary electorate than they are in Iowa and could propel her to a win there next week.
But even a win in New Hampshire will likely not mean Haley will be competitive in the overall primary against Trump. Her coalition is built well for a state like New Hampshire but won’t nearly be enough to counter Trump’s solid lead with actual Republican voters in primaries that aren’t open to independents voting in them. As the primary calendar turns to South Carolina (yes, it’s her home state, but it also fits the Trump voter profile more than hers), Haley will struggle. She can get maybe a third of voters in many states, but Trump’s grip on the increasingly non-college white GOP base makes him nearly impossible to beat for the nomination. Given that many of Haley’s voters in Iowa express support for Biden over Trump, her coalition is just not one that can sustain itself effectively to win the GOP nomination, even if it makes her more electable in a general election.
Folks, you may not like it for many different reasons but get ready for Donald Trump vs Joe Biden, Round 2. It’s happening.