This One Matters

How Harris and Trump Can Make the Debate Their Ticket to the White House

Then Vice President Mike Pence vs. Then Senator Kamala Harris in the Vice Presidential Debate, 7 October 2020. Photo Credit: Elvert Barnes

Presidential debates don’t matter. That’s a common refrain among political scientists and commentators, and there are indeed many studies showing that they have little, if any, effect on voter choices. 

But this one might be different.

With a race as close as this one is and with Harris still being somewhat unknown to many voters, I think tonight’s debate just might be the defining moment of the election so far. And it could actually decide who ultimately wins this election.

Why It Matters

1. Harris is still an unknown entity to many voters. This debate could change that. 

Kamala Harris still needs to define herself more to undecided and soft-partisan voters. Harris’ favorable and unfavorable ratings are not as baked in as Trump’s are — her strongly unfavorable ratings aren’t as high as Trump’s. And her ceiling is likely higher than Trump’s. So far, many of these voters have seen Harris in more scripted environments, and there’s definitely interest in her among undecided voters. But they have yet to see her in an unscripted environment. This is that moment. 

2. Trump can directly pin Biden’s unpopular issues on Harris. 

Donald Trump has an opportunity to use the debate to frame the election as a referendum on the current administration rather than a choice between himself and Harris. Trump has the opportunity to use the debate to focus on issues where the Biden-Harris administration is unpopular, like immigration and inflation.

3. This is Harris’ chance to be tough.  

Kamala Harris has never met Donald Trump one-on-one (I feel like January 6th was a big reason, press and pundits!), and so voters will have the chance now to see how she interacts with him in a combative environment. Biden failed in his debate because he wasn’t able to show toughness in standing up to Trump. Harris has a chance to demonstrate toughness in a way that Biden could not.

Harris’ Debate Goals

1. Show toughness without getting dragged into the mud

The vice president needs to show that she can effectively stand up to Donald Trump. With the mics muted, this will be harder for Harris after Trump talks. But Harris can try to nettle him over his own personal insecurities to try to bait Trump into pivoting to those insecurities and grievances that turn swing voters away from him. 

Harris needs to make the threat Trump poses clear without making him seem like a colossus to be taken down. Democrats have done a good job of framing him as weird to make him seem small. But she should avoid personal attacks on Trump (don’t mention his golf game, please!) because winning an insult-fest with the ultimate insult comic political figure is a fool’s errand. She can make him talk about things that make him sound crazy and off-putting, and then pivot back to her message. I think abortion is one area where she can do this — make it clear that Donald Trump was responsible for the unpopular restrictive abortion policies because he stacked the Supreme Court with the justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Make him own the issue.

2. Cast yourself as a change candidate and Trump as old news

Even as the incumbent vice president, so far, Harris has been able to cast herself as the candidate of change in a political environment where voters are looking for it. It also helps that Trump is a former president and largely veers toward messaging focused more on the past than the future. Harris should zero in on this any time that Trump delves into his grievances about the 2020 election, his legal issues, or the past as well as any time he goes into personal attacks on her or other perceived political enemies to shift the conversation. She should use those moments to tell voters essentially: Do you want more of the old tired playbook? He’s stale and, therefore, cannot represent the change you crave. It’s time to leave him in the past once and for all.

3. Frame the election as your concerns vs. his grievances

The vice president should exploit a key swing voter concern about the former president — that he has become so obsessed with his own grievances over the past and focused on his own problems that he is unfocused on problems voters want the president to address. She should focus on pocketbook concerns and lay out a few simple ways she would alleviate those hardships. She should do less arguing with Trump and try to have a conversation with the voters. Harris should leave swing voters with the impression that she is fighting to make their lives better, while Trump is focused on using the presidency to help himself and his allies.

Trump’s Debate Goals

1. Stay disciplined

This will not be an easy task for Donald Trump, though he seemed to come off as more disciplined in his June debate with Joe Biden. The former president should be grateful that his campaign staff was able to ensure that each candidate’s microphones will be muted when the other candidate speaks. In the first debate in 2020, Trump’s constant interruptions of Biden were heard by swing voters and solidified their view of him as an unprofessional and crazy person who they were tired of. Trump should ensure that the split screen doesn’t make him look bad. He needs to avoid frustrated or angry looks while Harris is speaking. Any undisciplined behavior will look especially bad for an old man debating a younger woman. 

2. Frame Harris as the incumbent

In an environment where voters are looking for something different, Trump should spend less time defending himself from attacks but frame Harris as the incumbent vice president who shares responsibility for any unpopular policies like inflation or immigration. Trump should follow his advisors’ advice and cast Vice President Harris less as a radical liberal and instead focus on tying her to President Biden. He needs to make the argument that Harris may be a new candidate, but she is running to be Joe Biden’s second term. He should argue that he is truly the candidate voters should look to for change. He should try his best to cast Harris as responsible for the chaos at the border and rising grocery prices.

3. Talk about 2024, not 2020

The former president’s obsession with his 2020 election loss has hurt him with swing voters and soft Republicans. It makes him appear disconnected from the issues voters are dealing with every day. He should avoid even talking about the 2020 election and be laser-focused on voters’ concerns in 2024. He should emphasize that he is the best person to handle concerns over inflation, the economy, border security, and immigration. He needs to leave voters thinking that he is focused on their lives rather than his own personal grievances.

Voters want to see how Kamala Harris can both stand up to Trump and stand up for them. They want to know if she truly represents change or just more of the same status quo they are frustrated with. While Donald Trump’s main objective is to remain disciplined, he also needs to make sure he successfully frames Harris as that status quo while presenting himself as a change agent. 

While most voters have their minds made up about Trump, this debate is much more critical for Harris since she remains the lesser-known candidate. If Harris can emerge from this debate as someone that voters feel comfortable with as president and someone who can help them improve their lives, then this debate would be a huge success for her. But if Trump can raise serious doubts about her as a true agent of change and position her as a continuation of the status quo, then his campaign could successfully turn off enough voters to give him the edge. 

Let me know in the comments after the debate if you believe Harris or Trump came off successful in accomplishing their strategic goals.